UK Bookmaker Betfair Shortens Joe Biden 2020 Odds After Bettor Wagers $67K
Posted on: September 9, 2020, 12:05h.
Last updated on: September 9, 2020, 06:55h.
London-based betting exchange Betfair has Joe Biden once again the 2020 favorite to win in November after a bettor plunked down $67,000 on the former vice president defeating President Donald Trump.
The action over the past month has largely been on the incumbent, prompting Betfair to make Trump the odds-on favorite last week for the first time since May. But after the large wager came in this week on the Democratic presidential candidate, the bookmaker has put Biden back in front.
Donald Trump has dominated the betting in the last month. But a new record stake has been placed on Joe Biden, which will return a six-figure sum if he’s successful,” explained Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom.
“This just goes to show that despite the recent momentum for Trump, Biden is still far from out of the race and following the odds going neck and neck last week, the challenger is now starting to resume his advantage,” Rosbottom continued.
The $67,000 bet was placed on odds of -105. It would net $63,809.52, for a total payout of $130,809.52.
Betfair now has Biden at -125 (4/5) to become the next Commander-in-Chief and evict the billionaire real estate developer and former casino owner from the White House. A $100 bet on those odds would net $80 should the 77-year-old become president. Trump is the underdog at +110 (11/10), a $100 winning bet netting $110.
Betting on the 2020 presidential election outcome is prohibited in the US. One exception is PredictIt, an exchange that allows users to buy and sell shares of political events and shares its data with educational institutions. PredictIt has Biden the heavy favorite, his shares of winning trading for 59 cents to Trump’s at 43 cents.
Lost Wager
Polls? Odds? Exchanges? Political pundits have varying opinions as to which is the most reliable forecasting method. Most agree, however, that pollsters got it wrong in 2016.
The polls weren’t alone. UK oddsmakers were also on the losing side in predicting whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton would become the 45th president of the United States.
Just a week before the 2016 election, Betfair, as well as rivals Paddy Power and Ladbrokes, had odds implying Clinton with a roughly 85 percent chance of defeating Trump. Betfair had the former first lady at 2/11 (-500), which would have netted only $18.18 for every $100 wagered had she won.
Betfair reported that $100 million was wagered on the 2016 presidency. Paddy Power was so confident on a Trump loss that it paid out $1.4 million in bets on Clinton prior to the election. Trump’s eventual victory cost the bookmaker an additional $7.2 million.
Even Action
Trump’s upset four years ago could be why the UK odds are much closer this time around. Action is robust on both candidates. The President became the 2020 betting favorite at Betfair last week after taking a $66,000 wager on Trump winning a second term.
Filmmaker Michael Moore predicted in 2016 that Trump would win, and he recently said it’s going to happen again because of GOP enthusiasm that is “off the charts.” “Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” Moore stated.
William Hill has Trump and Biden both at -110 (10/11).
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Last Comment ( 1 )
Betfair doesn't shorten or increase the odds. It's an exchange. it merely matches bets between backers and layers and arbers. So when a large back bet came in for Biden it pushed down the odds. Betfair had nothing to do with changing the odds. It's amazing how misleading the following sentence is; "The action over the past month has largely been on the incumbent, prompting Betfair to make Trump the odds-on favorite last week for the first time since May. But after the large wager came in this week on the Democratic presidential candidate, the bookmaker has put Biden back in front."